The U.S. has a long history of operating and succeeding in a contested logistics environment. Throughout World War I and World War II, Germany used unrestricted submarine warfare to disrupt the flow of supplies in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean, resulting in the destruction of hundreds of Allied cargo ships and over 10 million tons of cargo. While the U.S. has not faced a contested logistics environment in decades, military leaders and experts emphasize that the future fight will be a contested one. The future contested battlefield will look nothing like what the U.S. has encountered in the past as near-peer adversaries rapidly adopt emerging technologies to undermine the logistics capabilities of their rivals.

While emerging technologies are introducing new challenges to the modern contested logistics environment, technology is also key to creating the tools and strategies to overcome these challenges. Our Manifest platform for defense logistics uses artificial intelligence (AI) to model and simulate threats to the supply chain, empowering commanders and logisticians to plan operations resistant to those threats. Incorporating advanced technologies into our logistics enterprise will allow us to neutralize adversarial attempts to subvert our logistics operations.

What is Contested Logistics?

Although the Department of Defense has not yet codified the term “contested logistics environment” in doctrine, Title 10 of the U.S. Code (10 U.S.C. § 2926) defines “contested logistics environment” as:

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However, as described in Army doctrine, adversaries may seek to disrupt and degrade logistics operations both during and outside of times of armed conflict. To capture these nuances, an article published in Army Sustainment modifies the definition of “contested logistics environment” to:

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This modified definition provides the groundwork for how the U.S. should consider contested logistics as the operational environment evolves: adversaries may contest logistics outside of times of armed conflict to establish a foundation for future success of their military operations.

Emerging Technologies and New Logistics Threats

Although traditional tactics to disrupt logistics operations will continue on the modern battlefield, technological innovation is introducing new threats to logistics.

Advanced technologies near-peer adversaries are developing include:

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These advanced technologies demonstrate another key change in the modern contested logistics environment: adversaries will not only target logistics at the tactical-level of warfare, but also at the operational and strategic levels. For example, while adversaries will continue to seek to destroy supply depots (i.e., tactical-level), they will also seek to disrupt demand signals (i.e., operational-level) and conduct cyberattacks (i.e., strategic-level). This expansion of capabilities to undermine logistics across all levels of warfare demonstrates adversarial recognition of the importance of logistics in advancing military power. 

Although U.S. military AI spending continues to increase (AI spending nearly tripled from $261 million in 2022 to $675 million in 2023), adversaries significantly outpace the U.S. in the adoption of AI for military logistics. For example, China is investing in AI for military logistics at a rate nearly three times that of the U.S. This imbalance is critical to address in any operational environment, but is essential in a contested logistics environment.

To secure our logistical advantage, we must adopt AI for defense logistics. We built Manifest for defense logistics to deliver the predictive, precise logistics our enterprise needs to maximize combat power and mission success on the contested modern battlefield.

Manifest for Contested Logistics

Our Manifest platform combines novel machine learning (ML) methods with the military’s extensive supply and maintenance data to dynamically optimize the supply and distribution of materiel across vast distances.

Manifest unifies data from decentralized information systems into a common logistics operating picture to provide commanders and logisticians with unprecedented visibility into the status of equipment and materiel. Manifest then uses this rich historical data to train ML models on difficult-to-predict logistics variables, including demand, consumption, and expiration. With Manifest, users can simulate outcomes across thousands of scenarios to guide strategic, mission-critical planning efforts, such as where materiel should be pre-positioned across supply nodes and which blocks should be mobilized for a given operation.

In a contested logistics environment, these simulations allow commanders and logisticians to model threats to the supply chain and plan operations resistant to those threats. The resulting logistics enterprise is more resilient to unexpected losses of transport or supply and more adaptable to rapidly changing conditions on the ground. Manifest helps ensure our logistics enterprise can effectively operate under hostile conditions to anticipate warfighter requirements ahead of need and deliver precision sustainment at the right time and place.

Conclusion

The contested logistics environment of the future fight will present unprecedented challenges for our logistics enterprise. As near-peer adversaries increasingly adopt emerging technologies to introduce new threats to the logistics operations of their rivals, it is critical for the U.S. to safeguard our supply chains and preserve our logistics operations. Manifest delivers the predictive, precise logistics our enterprise needs to ensure supply chain integrity, resilience, and adaptability in a contested environment. Manifest redefines how we conduct military logistics and advances our military’s ability to overcome adversarial efforts to subvert our logistics operations.